Makerfield by election

Didn’t he do well. Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by election with more than half the votes cast. He was twenty points ahead of the Reform candidate despite the pundits claiming that it was a very close contest. So, has the Reform bubble burst now that Labour has got its act together?

Such a conclusion overlooks many of the special factors involved in this by election. Andy Burnham was no ordinary candidate but the sitting Greater Manchester mayor who was tipped to replace the seriously unpopular Keir Starmer as prime minister if elected. The previous Labour MP stood down to allow Burnham an opportunity to acquire a parliamentary seat. It was a risky strategy given the relatively slim majority over Reform at the last election, and the Reform landslide in the council election only a few weeks earlier. Nevertheless, it succeeded spectacularly, thanks to Burnham’s personal popularity in the constituency. So, this was primarily a vote for a personable candidate, rather than for the Labour Party.

Although, the personal vote for Burnham was the main factor there were problems with the Reform campaign. The candidate was pilloried in the media over some crude anti-women comments which may have alienated a chunk of potential female voters. However, there were other difficulties. He was chosen as a local candidate and employed as a plumber, in what looked like an attempt to emulate the recent Green Party by election success in the nearby Gorton & Denton constituency. Unfortunately, his lack of professionalism was exposed in the special BBC Question Time programme when he was outclassed not only by Burnham but also by the politically experienced Conservative candidate. To put it bluntly, he didn’t inspire much confidence that he could argue the Reform case lucidly and convincingly.

There was also the matter of the Restore Party standing in the election which many feared would split the right-wing vote. In the event Burnham outpolled the combined votes of both parties. But it still resulted in too much time and effort wasted attacking one another rather than presenting a united front to the electorate. It should be noted that despite all these problems Reform and Restore combined achieved a creditable 42% of the vote, which in many contests would have been enough to be elected. However, in this election the complete collapse of the Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Green vote resulted in a two-horse race with Labour as the winner.

It looks almost inevitable that Andy Burnham will soon replace Kier Starmer as prime minister. Although Burnham will be a much better communicator, he will still be presenting much the sane cocktail of discredited ideas and policies as before. Thus, it should only be a matter of time before the electorate again becomes disillusioned and they turn to supporting Reform as the only serious and credible alternative.