Further thoughts on the covid crisis

Since the last blogpost there have been a number of developments on the covid crisis. The principal change is that after several months of declining deaths and hospital admissions these have started to pick up again with the onset of autumn. Previously this blog had assumed that the pandemic was almost over as herd immunity appeared close to being realised. That conclusion now looks to be somewhat optimistic.

The evidence that the pandemic was winding down appeared to be soundly based since numbers were falling throughout Europe despite the lifting of many restrictions. There was also an assumption that the spread of the virus was unaffected by seasonal factors since places with hot climates such as Brazil and Florida were just as badly affected as cooler countries like Britain.

The evidence now suggests that, like influenza, covid spreads more easily in the autumn than it does in the summer. Since it continues to spread, and the number of cases is still increasing, it is also clear that Britain is still some way from achieving herd immunity. This trend is replicated throughout Europe and appears unaffected by measures such as limited lockdowns, face masks or a robust testing regime, all panaceas optimistically promoted by governments to control or suppress the virus.

What the current rise in cases suggests is that the best that governments can hope for is to temporarily reduce the spread of virus, through the introduction of severe measures such as national lockdowns. But these come with enormous economic and social costs together with a disproportionate interference with individual liberty, freedom and livelihoods. Whenever they are lifted the virus inevitably returns, the agony is prolonged for a longer period possibly indefinitely, and we are all back where we started, but with a wrecked economy and sky high unemployment.

Scotland was very successful in almost eliminating the virus during the summer months through its ‘zero covid’ strategy. But during the past few weeks cases there have risen at the same rate as for the rest of the UK. This suggests that the virus can never be suppressed to the extent that it will vanish completely. It will return when either the restrictions are lifted or when seasonal factors become more favourable to its spread.

The only option therefore is to achieve herd immunity as quickly as possible through the kind of strategy advocated by the distinguished medical and scientific experts who have drawn up the Great Barrington Declaration. This would allow life to return to normal for the vast majority of people of working age, whilst at the same time providing protective measures for the most vulnerable.

The sooner that the general population starts to move in the direction of achieving herd immunity, the greater is the protection that can be offered to the vulnerable, since this will allow the reproduction rate of the virus to gradually reduce on a sustainable long term basis. This strategy will also have the immense benefit of returning the economy to normal. Given the clear evidence about the nature of the virus that is now becoming increasingly apparent, there really is no alternative to the adoption of this strategy as an urgent necessity.