This is not the first time that there has been speculation about the end of the two party system. In the early 1980s the Social Democratic Party (SDP) was created by Roy Jenkins and other former Labour ministers on the right of the party to ‘break the mould’ of British politics. It was a top down elite creation, preaching ‘moderation’ interpreted as pro global capitalism, free trade, welfare state egalitarianism and closer links with the ‘Common Market’ as the European Union project was then known. It attracted a sizeable number of earnest, liberal minded, middle class supporters, and won two sensational parliamentary by elections at Crosby and Glasgow Hillhead on huge swings. However it performed poorly at the subsequent general election and gradually faded away before merging with the Liberals.
So the question that needs to be asked is whether Reform UK will suffer the same fate. Its biggest weakness is that it has been largely under the personal control of the leader Nigel Farage, who appears to take exception to anyone who might challenge his authority, as demonstrated by the recent removal of the MP Rupert Lowe. Consequently he has a near stranglehold on the policy and direction of the party, which increases the risk of conflict with senior colleagues who may have different ideas, and such divisions could lead to a possible loss of confidence by the electorate in the party.
On the other hand, the recent achievements of Reform are largely due to Farage’s communication and campaigning skills. He enjoys wide public recognition and appears to be far more in tune with the concerns of right leaning public opinion than the current Conservative Party leadership.
The Tories since the 1960s have consistently failed to promote anything resembling a right wing narrative. They presided over open ended third world immigration subverting our national identity and culture, they colluded in the destruction of grammar schools, for decades they were cheerleaders for surrendering powers to the European Union, they opposed Brexit, introduced same sex ‘marriage’, endorsed transgender lunacy, imposed an unnecessary covid lockdown and mask wearing regime, promoted the ‘climate change’ hoax, failed to abolish intrusive equality legislation, and as a final straw they encouraged record levels of both legal and illegal immigration leading to the current housing affordability crisis. In other words they shamelessly surrendered completely to the agenda of the cultural Marxist left.
The reason they could get away with this betrayal was because there was no credible alternative party of the right. But with the rise, and now electoral success, of Reform this has all changed. The Conservatives can no longer claim that a vote for any one else will let in Labour. The new reality is that a vote for the Conservatives now risks splitting the vote on the right to the benefit of parties of the liberal left. Trust in the Tories has evaporated; the party is now an empty shell, a busted flush, that will now pay the price for their past arrogant contempt and dismissal of the concerns of their traditional voter base.
